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title Flood risk assessment in a coastal lagoon under present and future scenarios: Ria de Aveiro case study
authors Lopes, CL; Alves, FL; Dias, JM
author full name Lopes, Carina L.; Alves, Fatima L.; Dias, Joao M.
title Flood risk assessment in a coastal lagoon under present and future scenarios: Ria de Aveiro case study
nationality internacional
language English
document type Article
author keywords Ria de Aveiro; Hydrodynamic modelling; Flood hazard; Flood damage; Multi-criteria analysis; Future scenarios
abstract Floods are one of the major threats to low-lying coastal lagoons, affecting people, socio-economic activities and ecosystem services. This work proposes a methodology to assess present and future flood hazard and risk in west-boundary low-lying coastal lagoons, using the Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) as case study. A multidisciplinary approach supported on Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence model combined with a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis was developed and applied. This comprised the following steps: (1) definition of present and future climate scenarios associated with oceanic, fluvial and combined events, combining sea levels and river discharges for different return periods; (2) characterization of flooding pathway through hydrodynamic modelling; (3) assessment of flood hazard combining flood depth and probability from hydrodynamic simulations; (4) assessment of flood risk calculating the adverse consequences on assets exposed to flood hazard. Results highlight that endangered regions are strongly dependent on the floods origin: oceanic floods threaten settlements and economic activities located along the margins of the lagoon main channels as well as habitats in the lagoon central area; fluvial floods endanger the river's mouth adjacent areas causing damage in restricted settlements, economic activities and farmland habitats; the combined floods also threaten the margins adjacent to the transition zones. For future scenarios, it is predicted the flood risk increase/decrease for oceanic/fluvial events, as a consequence of mean sea level rise/river discharges reduction predicted for the region. Finally, this work demonstrated the value of the methodology proposed and its potential for flood risk analysis, supporting the decision-making process underlying the flood risk management.
author address [Lopes, Carina L.; Dias, Joao M.] Univ Aveiro, CESAM Ctr Environm & Marine Studies, Phys Dept, NMEC Estuarine & Coastal Modelling Div, Campus Santiago, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal; [Alves, Fatima L.] Univ Aveiro, CESAM Ctr Environm & Marine Studies, Dept Environm & Planning, G INTRA Environm Instruments Grp, Campus Santiago, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal
reprint address Dias, JM (reprint author), Univ Aveiro, CESAM Ctr Environm & Marine Studies, Phys Dept, NMEC Estuarine & Coastal Modelling Div, Campus Santiago, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal.
e-mail address carinalopes@ua.pt; malves@ua.pt; joao.dias@ua.pt
funding agency and grant number CESAM [UID/AMB/50017/2013]; FCT/MEC; FEDER; Portuguese Science Foundation FCT (Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia) [SFRH/BD/78345/2011]
funding text Thanks for the financial support to CESAM (UID/AMB/50017/2013), to FCT/MEC through national funds, and the co-funding by the FEDER, within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement and Compete 2020. The first author benefited from a Ph.D. Grant (SFRH/BD/78345/2011) given by the Portuguese Science Foundation FCT (Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia). The authors also thank the ADAPTARia project team for the discharge data.
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cited reference count 45
publisher SPRINGER
publisher city NEW YORK
publisher address 233 SPRING ST, NEW YORK, NY 10013 USA
issn 0921-030X
29-character source abbreviation NAT HAZARDS
iso source abbreviation Nat. Hazards
publication date DEC
year published 2017
volume 89
issue 3
beginning page 1307
ending page 1325
digital object identifier (doi) 10.1007/s11069-017-3025-x
subject category 19
document delivery number Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Water Resources
unique article identifier Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Water Resources
link http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3025-x