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title Area burned in Portugal over recent decades: an extreme value analysis
authors Scotto, MG; Gouveia, S; Carvalho, A; Monteiro, A; Martins, V; Flannigan, MD; San-Miguel-Ayanz, J; Miranda, AI; Borrego, C
author full name Scotto, M. G.; Gouveia, S.; Carvalho, A.; Monteiro, A.; Martins, V.; Flannigan, M. D.; San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.; Miranda, A. I.; Borrego, C.
title Area burned in Portugal over recent decades: an extreme value analysis
nationality internacional
source INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE
language English
document type Article
author keywords classification; cluster analysis; return values; tail index
keywords plus FOREST-FIRES; WILDFIRE SIZES; QUANTILE REGRESSION; ATTRACTION; PATTERNS; WEATHER; DOMAINS
abstract Forest fires are a major concern in Europe, particularly in Portugal where large forest fires are responsible for negative environmental, social and economic effects. In this work, a long time series of daily area burned in 18 Portuguese districts (north, coastal areas and inner-south) from 1980 to 2010 are analysed to characterise extreme area burned and regional variability. The analysis combines the peak-over-threshold method and classification techniques to cluster the time series on the basis either of their corresponding tail indices or their predictive distributions for 5- and 15-year return values, that is, the level that is exceeded on average once every 5 or 15 years. As previously reported in other wildfire studies, the results show that the distributions of area burned (1980-2010) are heavy tailed for all Portuguese districts, with considerable density in the tail, indicating a non-negligible probability of occurrence of days with very large area burned. Moreover, clustering based on tail indices identified three distinct groups with spatial pattern closely related to the percentage of shrub cover within each district. Finally, clustering based on return values shows that the largest return levels of area burned are expected to occur in districts located in the centre and south of Portugal.
author address [Scotto, M. G.] Univ Aveiro, Ctr Res & Dev Math & Applicat CIDMA, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal; [Scotto, M. G.] Univ Aveiro, Dept Math, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal; [Gouveia, S.] Univ Aveiro, Inst Elect & Telemat Engn Aveiro IEETA, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal; [Gouveia, S.] Univ Aveiro, CIDMA, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal; [Carvalho, A.; Monteiro, A.; Martins, V.; Miranda, A. I.; Borrego, C.] Univ Aveiro, Ctr Environm & Marine Studies CESAM, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal; [Carvalho, A.; Monteiro, A.; Martins, V.; Miranda, A. I.; Borrego, C.] Univ Aveiro, Dept Environm & Planning, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal; [Flannigan, M. D.] Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada; [San-Miguel-Ayanz, J.] Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21027 Ispra, Italy
reprint address Scotto, MG (reprint author), Univ Aveiro, Ctr Res & Dev Math & Applicat CIDMA, Campus Santiago, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal.
e-mail address mscotto@ua.pt
funding agency and grant number Portuguese funds through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology ('FCT-Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia') within CIDMA/UA Project [PEst-OE/MAT/UI4106/2014]; IEETA/UA Project [PEst-OE/EEI/UI0127/2014]; CESAM/UA Project [PEst-C/MAR/LA0017/2013]; EMOSAT Project (FCT) [PTDC/CTE-ATM/103253/2008, FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-009305]; FCT [SFRH/BPD/87037/2012]; Portuguese Ministerio da Ciencia, da Tecnologia e do Ensino Superior [SFRH/BD/39799/2007, SFRH/BPD/63796/2009]
funding text This work was supported by Portuguese funds through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology ('FCT-Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia'), within CIDMA/UA Project PEst-OE/MAT/UI4106/2014 (Centro de Investigacao e Desenvolvimento em Matematica e Aplicacoes, CIDMA/UA, Aveiro, www.cidma.mat.ua.pt), IEETA/UA Project PEst-OE/EEI/UI0127/2014 (Instituto de Engenharia Electronica e Telematica de Aveiro, IEETA/UA, Aveiro, www.ieeta.pt), CESAM/UA Project PEst-C/MAR/LA0017/2013 (www.cesam.ua.pt) and EMOSAT Project (FCT ref. PTDC/CTE-ATM/103253/2008, FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-009305). S. Gouveia acknowledges the postdoctoral grant from FCT (ref. SFRH/BPD/87037/2012). V. Martins and A. Monteiro acknowledge the Portuguese Ministerio da Ciencia, da Tecnologia e do Ensino Superior for their PhD (ref. SFRH/BD/39799/2007 to V. Martins) and postdoctoral (ref. SFRH/BPD/63796/2009 to A. Monteiro) grants. The authors express their gratitude to the Editor, the Associate Editor and the two referees, who offered extremely valuable perspectives on our work and effective suggestions for improvements. The authors also gratefully acknowledge the Instituto de Conservacao da Natureza e Florestas for the fire activity and land cover data.
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cited reference count 40
publisher CSIRO PUBLISHING
publisher city COLLINGWOOD
publisher address 150 OXFORD ST, PO BOX 1139, COLLINGWOOD, VICTORIA 3066, AUSTRALIA
issn 1049-8001
29-character source abbreviation INT J WILDLAND FIRE
iso source abbreviation Int. J. Wildland Fire
year published 2014
volume 23
issue 6
beginning page 812
ending page 824
digital object identifier (doi) 10.1071/WF13104
page count 13
web of science category Forestry
subject category Forestry
document delivery number AP3QL
unique article identifier WOS:000341991700006
link http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13104